Essays

The library.

Long-form work on strategy, foresight, scenario thinking, and the discipline of running businesses through uncertainty. New essays every few weeks. Subscribe to The Loop to get them when they drop.

June 16, 2026 AI & Judgment

AI Can Run the Scan. It Can't Take the Stake.

AI collapsed the cost of analysis to zero. So analysis isn't the advantage anymore — judgment is. A field note on where intelligence stops and a decision begins.

A luminous brass ribbon tracing an open loop over a deep pine field — most of the loop complete, the final arc unfinished.
May 8, 2026 Predictive Planning

Why your annual plan goes stale by April

The annual plan is a 1950s artifact. It was built for an era when the environment changed slowly. The discipline that replaces it is continuous, not episodic — and the technology to run it didn't exist a decade ago.

A crisp brass line dissolving into drifting embers across a dark pine field — editorial illustration of a plan decaying by April.
May 8, 2026 Commercial Clarity

Most companies have plans. Few have positions.

Messaging describes. Positioning differentiates. The strategic commitment underneath the language is what creates durability — and most companies have invested in the former without doing the work of the latter.

A single tall brass monolith standing resolute among many faint scattered forms — editorial illustration of one clear position among many plans.
May 8, 2026 Executive Authority

The Coherency Loop

Leadership today is the continuous work of converting change into shared meaning. Coherence is not certainty — it's a working model that has to be rebuilt as the environment shifts.

A solitary figure at the edge of a precipice contemplating a vast watercolor sun — editorial illustration.